The Generational Threat to the Conservatives

This week saw the publication of a Whitestone Insight mega-poll of more than 13,000 British adults looking at the Conservative party leadership and the impact of different policy offers on support for leaders.

The poll comes in the wake of two Tory by-election defeats. Rishi Sunak’s claim that the results are simply mid-term blues is undermined by the sheer scale of negative sentiment in the poll, particularly amongst Tory voters: they no longer rate his leadership and the Party lacks support among even the middle aged, let alone the young.

The electoral mountain for Labour is greater than it was in 1997 because Boris Johnson’s victory in 2019 left many more Conservative seats safer than after the 1992 Election. However, that is amply outweighed by how few supporters the Party now has. Indeed, our polling shows a 17 point Conservative swing to Labour, which compares to a swing of ‘just’ 10.2 at the 1997 election.

Worst of all is the long term outlook for the Conservatives. Rishi Sunak’s Party now has the support of fewer than one in ten of those under 45, and fewer than one in five aged 45 to 64. To put this in context, even in the dreaded 1997 landslide the Conservatives had the support of around four times as many 18 to 34 year olds as they have today. If they do not change course, it is not just the next election which looks doubtful; the Party may well face extended electoral oblivion.