Can Keir Keep Things Together?

That Labour will win the next election is, as political predictions go, something of a safe bet. With record poll leads seemingly splashed most weeks, it would be easy for Starmer to become complacent – something he is at pains to emphasise he is not.
 
So if winning the next election is in the bag, is there anything Labour can learn from recent polling? It’s that winning in 2029 will be a far bigger challenge.
 
A recent poll we carried out of 13,534 voters suggests that the divergence between Labour’s northern working-class voters, and its city-dwelling young professional supporters could make the task of governing a difficult task for a new Labour Government.
 
We tested three indicative policies which have the potential to be hot topics in the upcoming election, and future elections: Net Zero, immigration, and trans. On all of them, Labour voters were divided.
 
For example, on whether or not diesel and petrol cars should be phased out by 2035, only 45% of Labour voters in the Northeast support this policy compared to 71% of Labour voters in London.
 
When it comes to whether or not children should be banned from socially transitioning at school without parental consent, 70% of Scottish Labour voters would support such a policy. In contrast, in London 57% of Labour voters would oppose banning children from transitioning.
 
Labour voters of different ages are also divided. Sixty one percent of 18–24-year-olds who intend to vote Labour actively oppose reducing immigration to the UK, while 67% of Labour voters aged over 65 want immigration to be reduced.
 
Winning the 2024 election will be the least of Starmer’s challenges in the next five years. He must hold his party together in what appear to be increasingly difficult circumstances. The full scale of the challenge will not be clear until he is in 10 Downing Street.
 
But when the black door closes on the flash of camera bulbs heralding the new prime minister back from his first meeting with the King, and the task of governing begins, Sir Keir will face the impossible task of pleasing everyone whose votes got him there.