Labour’s to Lose?

As we head into the final round of the Six Nations, it’s all (technically) still to play for. This weekend is Super Saturday and, if England beat France with a bonus point, and Ireland lose to Scotland, England could take home the trophy for the first time since 2011.

Meanwhile Welsh fans wait with baited breath hoping they can beat Italy and avoid displacing the wooden spoon holders of the last eight years. 

Before and at halftime in each game, former England player Maggie Alphonsi presents data from Sage to help explain the likelihood of each outcome. It’s a good reminder that no side can afford to take their foot off the pedal if they want to beat the opposition.

The same can be said about the looming general election.

Kier Starmer must win a swing of 13 points to achieve outright victory, even greater than the 10.2 point swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997. The current 16-point average swing would do the job but leaves little wiggle room with a maximum of ten months still to go until the Election.

The question is, as we head towards the figurative last round where pressure builds and margins tighten, will Labour be able to maintain their lead?

With Boris Johnson now rumoured to start campaigning for the Conservatives, this is a key moment for Labour. They need to hang on to Tory defectors, especially socially conservative Red Wall voters for whom Boris’s return could be significant. His involvement will also influence the extent to which Reform can retain defecting older Conservative voters, whose votes could make a massive difference if Reform follow through on their threat to stand in every seat.

Labour also need to keep younger voters motivated to support them. From Whitestone’s own polling we know that age and education have replaced income as the main divide in voting intention.

Furthermore, the Resolution Foundation points out that the turnout divide between richer and poorer young voters is deepening. In 2019 almost 70% of homeowning millennials voted, compared to fewer than half (41%) of non-homeowning millennials. While homeowning millennials were seven percentage points more likely to vote Labour in 2023 than 2019, non-homeowners were more likely not to vote at all. The inability of many younger voters to afford a home of their own may harm Labour as well as the Conservatives (not to mention the young themselves).

The mood in the country points firmly to change, but the electoral maths will make the closing months of the election race a tense period for this particular tournament.